Thursday, March 20, 2008

Is It Real or Is It …

Is the economy bad because of economic factors like job cuts, bad loans and inflation? Or is it bad merely because people keep saying it is bad? Or is it really bad at all?

My economy is the best it has been in years, yet I’m afraid to spend a dollar because every time I turn around someone is saying the economy is bad. One of my goals this year was to pay off two remaining non-mortgage debts and I’ve already hit one of those goals; and I should hit the other one by Thanksgiving. But I’m reluctant to replace my paid-for, eight-year-old, gas-guzzling SUV with 150,000 miles on it with a vehicle more suited to my 85-miles-per-day commute because I’m stressed by the thought of applying for a car loan.

Four years of car payments? I can’t do that … the economy is bad!

I had planned a great vacation for the end of April but I cancelled it. Why? Uhh, the economy is bad.

I clip coupons, shop at the outlet mall and bring my lunch to work four days a week. These are all fiscally responsible behaviors, but my main motivation is that … the economy is bad.

I have worked for the same company for sixteen years, yet I’m stressed about losing my job because having a job this long seems to be unusual in this (here it comes) bad economy. I have no reason to believe I’m going to lose my job. In fact, most indicators are quite the opposite, except one (here we go again): the economy is so bad.

How bad is it?

A quick and admittedly superficial internet search shows that the unemployment rate spiked in the mid 1970s, the early 1980s and again in the early 1990s, but generally has held steadily around 6% since 1960. During those spikes, it hit around 10 or 11%. The statistic for last month was 4.8%. Is that bad compared to past years?

Mortgage rates are currently around 6%; my first mortgage, in 1982, was a then typical 12.75%. My current one isn’t so bad, is it?

Certainly if you’re unemployed, carless and facing foreclosure, the economy is bad. If you’re stuck in a job that pays less than you’re worth, your economy is bad. If you live in an inflated housing market like here near DC, you might say the economy is bad. But in those scenarios, is it worse now than a year or two ago, or has it been bad for quite some time?

Food and fuel prices are rising, so maybe the economy really is bad. Or maybe this “bad economy” is just a slump that is exaggerated by overblown media attention? Any thoughts on this?

1 comment:

Synchronicity said...

i suppose there are stats to show one way or the other and of course the stock market and housing...

and then there is what everyone is personally feeling. how the world views finances is often times very subjective.

i do feel it is bad...it seems anyone who has a job and gets a raise...it is not enough to cover the rising costs...and especially health care. i think many of us are a paycheck or two away from disaster.